The Electoral System Referendum: A MMP v FFP Affair?

I decided to do this post for two reasons. Firstly, because of a press release by the Campaign for MMP, which can be found here. The second reasons is also related to this press release. At the bottom, it links you to a Radio New Zealand clip. If you go to about 13:20 into the clip, you get Jim Mora saying “but First Past the Post is the great battle in most people’s minds. It’s FPP v MMP.” Radio NZ asked Research NZ to do a poll on what people would prefer, MMP or FPP. This poll is what the Campaign for MMP is using to say that MMP is preferred by New Zealanders.

I am slightly disturbed by this. Firstly, there are five options at the referendum, being MMP, FPP, STV, SM and PV. For more about these systems, head over to http://www.referendum.org.nz/votingsystems – I really do advise that you do this. It really helped me decide which system I would vote for. Doing a poll asking New Zealanders to choose between MMP and FPP cannot be representative of New Zealanders’ views on the referendum. Personally, my votes at the referendum will be change from MMP, and Supplimentary Member. However, if I was asked this question, I would be saying I prefer MMP.

So, in this poll, 50% preferred MMP and 36% preferred FPP. We can assume that the remaining 14% said they did not know, though this was not given. But if we think that the majority of people who would vote for STV and SM would vote for MMP in this poll, and the majority of people who would vote for PV would vote for FPP in this poll.

Given that in the last referendum, 23% of voters gave their vote to STV or SM, and 6.6% voted for PV, we can make an estimate of what this poll should have come up with. Remember, this is a highly inaccurate way of getting this, and will almost certainly not be correct. To keep it even, I will split the “don’t know” people equally.

Keep MMP: 28.5%
Change from MMP: 71.5%

FPP: 61.7%
STV: 20.9%
SM: 8.3%
PV: 9.7%

Once again, this is a very unscientific method of figuring this out, but it is required because of Radio New Zealand and Research New Zealand completing a flawed poll.

While this isn’t a scientific way of doing things either, there’s a couple of polls below. Fill them out and let’s see where this goes.

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About Daniel Farrell

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Posted on June 19, 2011, in New Zealand Politics, Polls and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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