Election 2011 – Where I see us in three months time

I have been watching this election very carefully, and from what I’ve seen, I’ve made some estimations about what I think will happen in just under three months time. Note, these are estimations. There is no scientific research. I have just been watching polls, particularly information on electionresults.co.nz.

Here’s my expected seats at this point:

  • National – 52
  • Labour – 45
  • Green – 6
  • New Zealand First – 6
  • Maori – 5
  • ACT – 4
  • Mana – 2
  • United Future – 1

This gives us an overhang of two seats, meaning a coalition would require 62 seats to make a Government.

When we make this into a picture of Parliament, the implications become apparent.

We see here that both National and Labour can form Governments with the support of the Maori Party and their natural supporters.

If we look at the number of seats each party and their supporters have:

 

This shows that while the Labour supporters could create more seats, they do not have enough to form a Government.

However when we add the Maori Party to both sides:

We now see that both parties cross the threshold, however Labour by more.

This election is far from over. I do think National may regret ruling out Winston Peters at the early stage they did.

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About Daniel Farrell

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Posted on August 2, 2011, in New Zealand Politics and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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