Election 2011: The Result

What an interesting election it has been. National comes out with a major majority, but struggles to create a coalition.

There is a couple very interesting electorates. Firstly, Christchurch Central – this is what usually is a Labour stronghold. As we stand now, we have no result. Both National and Labour’s candidates have the exact same number of votes. It’s not going to result in a by-election just yet. Firstly, we need to count the Special Votes – these are the votes that came from outside of the electorate, whether they be another electorate within New Zealand, or from outside of New Zealand. After this, there’s still the chance of a recount, and really, unless all of these votes are 80-90% for one candidate, that will happen regardless.

Another interesting electorate through the night was Waitakere. This electorate saw Paula Bennett and Carmel Sepuloni trading blows right up until the last minute, when Paula Bennett took the seat by 349 seats – a narrow majority that still may change with the counting of special votes.

Looking through the results, if Labour and Green Party supporters had voted strategically, we could be seeing Phil Goff as Prime Minister now. In Epsom, if Labour supporters had voted for Paul Goldsmith rather than David Parker, and Green Supporters had voted for Paul Goldsmith rather than David Hay, John Banks would not have won Epsom, things would have been very different. Not only that, but Labour could have formed a Government if that had happened as well as Green supporters voting for Charles Chauvel rather than Gareth Hughes in Ohariu – particularly considering Gareth Hughes only needed the Greens to get about about 7% for him to get in on the Party Vote, Peter Dunne would not have been successful. We need 61 seats to form a Government. National/ACT/United Future gives 62 seats. Take away John Banks and Peter Dunne, National only has 60 seats – not enough to form Government.

What also now doesn’t matter is whether John Key/John Banks did discuss Don Brash’s leadership of ACT, as he’s now resigned as leader, given he won’t be in Parliament, so it makes no sense for him to be in Parliament.

Having said that, there’s always the special votes. There’s about 220,000 of those. John Key is not necessarily Prime Minister at the end of this.

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Posted on November 27, 2011, in New Zealand Politics and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.

  1. Putting Parker up in Epsom was Labour’s biggest fuckup. Major strategy fail. Hated seeing Banks get in because as much as I hate Act, I do think there needs to be a libertarian voice in parliament – Banks isn’t a libertarian, he’s a conservative – just another Nat for all intents and purposes, just like Dunne.

    From a left point of view, the one positive is that National’s majority does look rather shaky in terms of coalition partners. Last night one of the commentators said this election was National’s “high tide”, which I’d tend to agree with – don’t see them getting 48% next time. If Act and UF stay single seat parties, if National drop to say below 45% they won’t be forming a govt in 2014.

    • Labour shouldn’t have put up a candidate at all. They should have got their supporters to vote National in the electorate vote. Strategic voting was the only way that Labour was going to get in, and unfortunately for their supporters, they didn’t quite understand that.

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