Safe as the proverbial houses
Over the past few days, there’s been a lot of talk about Andrew Little. Labour’s support is at best static since the last election, and that was considered to be one of the worst results the Labour Party has ever seen. There’s been comment that, surely, Andrew Little has to go before the election so the Labour Party has any chance at winning the 2017 election.
Now, I’m looking at this from the perspective of logic, not necessarily the way the Labour Party will look at it. You’d hope there’s still some sense left in the party, and that will come out. Given the chance there’s no sense left, this could be the exact opposite of what happens. I guess we’ll see over the coming months. Either way, if I were in the Labour Party, I would absolutely be saying that there is no way in hell Andrew Little should be removed as leader before the election. That hurts Labour more than it helps.
As it stands, Labour will lose next year’s election. John Key will continue as Prime Minister, and Little will, presumably, resign after that. A new leader takes over, who has two years to get the party into an electable position. That is potentially achievable. National serves its fourth term, and we have a decent competition in 2020, with Labour maybe getting back into Government.
If Andrew Little is replaced however, the new leader has six months at most to fix all the ills of the Labour Party and get them into an electable position. If you’re still fixing the party once the campaign begins, or even too close to it, you’ve already lost. The Labour Party is in such disarray that six months is nowhere near enough. The new leader goes into the election next year, and loses. They are then tainted with that election loss. They’ve just become unelectable – not because they lost, but because they were at the helm when the party when to an election as unprepared as Labour will inevitably be next year. Because they were so new to the job though, they’ll easily be able to persuade the party to give them more time. They’ll stay on until at least mid way through the next term of Government, and we’ll be back where we are today.
John Key is already going to be the second Prime Minister to win four elections after Holyoake. If Labour ditch Andrew Little now, John Key is guaranteed to win his fifth election, being the first New Zealand Prime Minister to do so. He will also be guaranteed to be Prime Minister on 20 September 2021 – the day he would become New Zealand’s longest serving Prime Minister, beating out William Massey, who lasted 12 years, 10 months. You’d have to wonder if the Labour Party can survive being in opposition for the entirety of the term of the longest serving Prime Minister.
So, if Labour still has any shred of sense, Andrew Little will stay their leader until after the election, when they will finally choose an actual leader, preferably not picked by the unions. Who that is, well I genuinely have no idea. It’s certainly not any of Labour’s people in Parliament now.
Posted on September 13, 2016, in Uncategorized and tagged Andrew Little, John Key, Keith Holyoake, New Zealand Labour Party, New Zealand National Party, William Massey. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.